Defense Acquisition Research Journal Issue 95

Use of Factors in Development Estimates: Improving the Cost Analyst Toolkit

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TABLE 14. SE/PM DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS COMPARISON

Original Mean

1998–Present Mean

Original Median

1998–Present Median

Commodity

Aircraft

0.3025

0.3433

0.2292

0.2727

Electronic/Automated Software

0.5463

0.5479

0.4875

0.4875

Missile

0.5014

0.5014

0.3897

0.3897

Ordnance

0.3426

0.3484

0.285

0.3409

Space

0.3825

0.4059

0.3109

0.3109

UAV 0.3887 The descriptive statistics of the subset of data for SE/PM are similar in most cases, and identical in some, to the original dataset. Analysis of other WBS elements (not shown) yields similar results. The consistency displayed between the subset and original dataset leads to the conclusion that the 27 programs excluded due to inaccessible files or illegible entries are unlikely to affect the descriptive statistics or statistical analysis results. Discussion and Conclusions This article sought to improve the current state of cost estimating with a focus on furthering EMD cost factors. These improvements are achieved through several avenues. First, new standard cost factors were created from a diverse set of program types comprising over 400 CDSRs. The development and publication of these new factors are useful on their own merit. But additional gains in cost estimation accuracy are possible by determining which factors should be used in various circumstances. This second benefit is determined through statistical testing of relevant categor ical grouping (commodity, contract type, development type, contractor, and 0.4913 0.5154 0.3655

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Defense ARJ, January 2021, Vol. 28 No. 1 : 40-70